The Netherlands Faces a Gambling Crossroad: Regulation Tightens, Black Market Grows

That’s exactly what’s happening right now in the Netherlands — and for affiliates, this shift carries both challenges and new opportunities.

What’s Happening: The Numbers Tell the Story

• In the first half of 2025, licensed gambling operators generated around €600 million in GGR — down from €697 million in the previous six months.
• The share of player spending via licensed sites fell from roughly 51% to 49%, meaning nearly half of all gaming activity now takes place on unlicensed or offshore platforms.
• The average player loss dropped from €146 to €119 per month, showing that player protection measures are indeed working — but perhaps too well for operator revenue.
• At the same time, the number of active accounts rose from ~1.18 million to 1.29 million — suggesting not necessarily new players, but more accounts per user.

Why It’s Happening

The Dutch regulator, Kansspelautoriteit (KSA), has introduced a strict set of rules: deposit limits, affordability checks, and heavy restrictions on marketing and bonuses.

While these steps aim to protect players and promote responsible gambling, they’ve had a side effect: some players feel that licensed sites have become “too strict” — with fewer promotions, fewer payment options, and more friction.

And where do those players go next? To offshore sites that promise bigger bonuses, less verification, and fewer limitations.

In short: the tighter the rules, the more attractive the unlicensed alternatives seem.

What Affiliates Should Take Away

If the Netherlands is part of your target geo — or you’ve been eyeing it as a potential market — this situation is your signal to adjust your strategy.

Here’s how:

• Choose your partners carefully. Licensed brands are facing tighter ad restrictions, so conversion rates may dip. Promoting unlicensed operators, meanwhile, risks penalties or site blocks. Finding the right balance is key.
• Adapt your content. Players are confused — “Why can’t I claim this bonus anymore?” or “What changed?” This is your chance to educate them. Honest, transparent content builds trust and engagement.
• Leverage informational niches. Articles about “how to identify safe casinos,” “what license means,” or “the pros and cons of offshore gaming” can attract valuable organic traffic.
• Diversify your GEOs. The Dutch market may be in a transition phase. It’s smart to allocate traffic and resources across multiple regulated regions rather than relying on one.
• Focus on retention. With lower average spending, player lifetime value depends on loyalty. Work with brands that offer missions, rewards, and gamified experiences to keep users engaged.

The Bigger Picture

The Dutch market shows one clear truth: regulation doesn’t kill iGaming — it reshapes it.
The industry is evolving toward compliance, transparency, and sustainability. But as it does, the balance between protection and entertainment becomes tricky.

For affiliates, this isn’t the time to pull back — it’s the time to evolve.

The old “bonus-heavy” model is fading fast. The new winners will be those who focus on education, trust, and long-term value — those who speak honestly about the market and help players make smart choices.

In the end, it’s not just about promoting casinos. It’s about building bridges between safe gaming and real user engagement.